CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-16T17:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-16T17:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26023/-1
CME Note: Wide event with bulk seen to the southwest with distinguishable wider and fainter shock front extending to the south-southeast and widening even further with time to the southeast. Associated with a long-duration M4.0-class flare from AR 3363 near S25W60 and simultaneous eruption. Eruption with opening magnetic field lines are seen best in GOES-18 195/171. SOHO LASCO C3 data gap at this time. There is no clear arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-19T07:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1155.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 672.765 Acceleration: 0.0533977 Duration in seconds: 221799.52 Duration in days: 2.5671241 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.05 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 684.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/07/2023 Time: 07:29 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 23.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-07-18T08:06Z
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